The upcoming film The Kerala Story 2: Goes Beyond, directed by Kamakhya Narayan Singh and produced by Vipul Amrutlal Shah under Sunshine Pictures, is set for theatrical release on February 27, 2026. As a sequel to the 2023 blockbuster The Kerala Story, it continues to explore themes of alleged forced religious conversions, drawing from claimed real-life events across India. This analysis examines the film’s budget in relation to projected box office performance, considering historical precedents, market factors, and recent developments.
Background on the Franchise
The original The Kerala Story, released in 2023, achieved remarkable commercial success despite significant controversy surrounding its narrative on conversion and radicalization. Produced on a modest budget of approximately ₹20 crore, it grossed over ₹300 crore worldwide, marking it as a superhit and demonstrating the viability of content-driven cinema in polarizing topics. The film’s profitability stemmed from strong word-of-mouth promotion, particularly among audiences receptive to its thematic focus, rather than reliance on star power or extensive marketing.
The sequel expands the scope beyond Kerala, portraying the experiences of three young women from different states—Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan—who face manipulation through romantic relationships leading to conversion. Unlike the first installment’s emphasis on victimhood, The Kerala Story 2 adopts a resilient tone with the tagline “Ab Sahenge Nahin… Ladenge” (We will not tolerate… We will fight), showing the protagonists combating the alleged systemic issues. The cast features emerging actors such as Ulka Gupta as Surekha Nair, Aishwarya Ojha as Neha Sant, and Aditi Bhatia as Divya Paliwal, maintaining the franchise’s approach of casting fresh talent to control costs.
Budget Analysis
Estimates place the production budget for The Kerala Story 2 at around ₹20 crore, comprising ₹15 crore for core production and ₹5 crore for prints and publicity. This figure aligns closely with the original film’s expenditure, reflecting a strategic decision to prioritize narrative impact over high production values or celebrity fees. By opting for a controlled budget, the filmmakers aim to replicate the high return-on-investment model of the predecessor, where modest costs amplified profitability amid widespread discussion and debate.
However, some industry observers suggest a slightly higher allocation, potentially up to ₹30 crore, to accommodate enhanced marketing efforts given the sequel’s broader thematic reach and pre-release buzz. Factors such as location shooting across multiple states, legal consultations for sensitive content, and promotional campaigns could contribute to this variance. Overall, the budget remains conservative compared to mainstream Bollywood releases, positioning the film as a low-risk venture if it captures similar audience interest.
Box Office Predictions
Pre-release forecasts for The Kerala Story 2 indicate a solid opening, with industry analysts predicting an opening day collection in the range of ₹3–7 crore nett in India. A pinpoint estimate suggests around ₹5 crore on the first day, driven by positive trailer reception, which has been described as impactful and resonant with the target demographic. This represents an upward revision from initial projections of ₹1–5 crore, attributed to the trailer’s strong online traction and echoes of the original’s viral appeal.
Lifetime domestic collections are anticipated to fall between ₹150–250 crore, with potential to exceed ₹300 crore globally if controversy fuels sustained viewership, mirroring the first film’s trajectory. Key drivers include:
- Audience Segmentation: The film appeals to non-traditional cinema-goers, similar to the original, where social media amplification and ideological alignment boosted attendance.
- Controversy Factor: Statements from figures like Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, labeling the film as a “threat to secularism,” may paradoxically increase visibility and draw crowds seeking provocative content. Legal challenges, including notices from the Kerala High Court regarding certification, could further heighten public interest.
- Market Dynamics: Releasing in a relatively uncluttered window, the film benefits from minimal competition. However, polarized reactions—ranging from endorsements for its “awareness” value to criticisms as “propaganda”—may limit broader appeal.
International performance remains uncertain, with overseas markets potentially contributing ₹50–100 crore, depending on diaspora engagement and streaming deals post-theatrical run.
Budget Versus Predictions: A Comparative Outlook
Relative to its ₹20 crore budget, The Kerala Story 2 stands poised for substantial returns if predictions hold. Achieving even the lower end of forecasts (₹150 crore domestic) would yield a profit margin exceeding 650%, surpassing many high-budget productions. This efficiency underscores the franchise’s model: leveraging topical issues for organic promotion rather than star-driven hype.
In comparison to the original, the sequel faces higher expectations but benefits from established brand recognition. While the 2023 film defied low initial projections through grassroots support, the current installment’s trailer has already generated optimism among analysts. Risks include potential bans in certain regions or boycott calls, which could cap earnings at ₹100–150 crore in a worst-case scenario. Conversely, strong endorsements from influential voices could propel it toward blockbuster status, with some enthusiasts projecting over ₹500 crore.
Conclusion
The Kerala Story 2: Goes Beyond exemplifies a calculated approach to filmmaking, where a restrained budget amplifies the potential for outsized box office success through narrative boldness and timely relevance. As the release approaches, its performance will hinge on balancing controversy with audience resonance. Industry stakeholders will monitor this closely, as it may influence future content strategies in sensitive genres.
